FT Opinion: It is time to jettison the Myanmar fairytale

The tendency is to gloss over the effects of 20 years of sanctions, 30 years of self-isolation, 50 years of authoritarian rule, 70 years of internal war, and over 100 years of colonialism.

Myanmar: fierce fighting has erupted during the past few years and there are nearly 500,000 internally displaced people along the Thai and Chinese borders © Getty

It is time to jettison the Myanmar fairytale

The Rohingya humanitarian crisis and economic woes create a bleak outlook 

Thant Myint-U / Financial Times | 17 October 2017

The writer is author of the forthcoming book ‘The Secret History of Burma’ (2018)

The outside world is absolutely right to prioritise the crisis at hand. It is equally important, though, to jettison once and for all the Myanmar fairytale, and to appreciate that working in Myanmar means working with a near-failed state; to redouble efforts to boost the country’s own abilities, in particular through investments in health and education; and, perhaps most of all, to help inject fresh thinking about an exciting future for all. 

Myanmar today presents a more worrying picture than at almost any time since the darkest days of military dictatorship.

The world's attention has rightly been focused on the Rohingya crisis ;and the plight of hundreds of thousands of men, women, and children fleeing in one of the biggest refugee exoduses since the second world war. 

The worst may not be over. Humanitarian needs are far from met and discussions have barely begun on possible refugee return or the investigation of human rights abuses. 

There is a chance that western countries may respond with targeted sanctions. Even if formal sanctions are not imposed, international investor interest and tourism numbers will doubtless plummet. This is at a time when local business confidence is weak and banks unstable. Millions of the poorest people in Asia may soon face an unbearably bleak future.

Any economic downturn will directly threaten Myanmar’s already fragile peace process. The country is home to approximately 20 “ethnic armed organisations”, the largest of which is fielding more than 20,000 troops, and hundreds of local militia. 

Fierce fighting has erupted at times during the past few years and there are nearly 500,000 internally displaced people along the Thai and Chinese borders. Economic growth alone will not lead to peace, but without the pull of an inclusive and fast-developing economy, the peace process will have no steam.

The Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, responsible for the August attacks ;which set off the latest round of violence, may well attack again. There is an even worse scenario where international jihadi groups or others inspired by them target cities in central Myanmar, where 2m other, non-Rohingya Muslims, are for now living in peace with their Buddhist, Hindu and Christian neighbours. Imported terrorism could easily spark communal violence, with devastating consequences. 

For many in the west, Myanmar has been seen for decades almost exclusively as a Manichean struggle between the democracy movement, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, and a faceless junta. Few have wanted to understand the depth and complexity of Myanmar’s challenges and or help find a pragmatic way forward. Policy failures have had little political cost.

Inside the country, there is a myth of Myanmar as a rich country gone wrong, a belief in a golden age not long ago, ruined by military despots. The corollary to this is believing that a single shift, say to democratic government, is all that is needed to unlock potential and restore the country to its rightful place as one of the most prosperous in the region. An actual nuts and bolts programme for modernisation is nowhere to be found.

The tendency is to gloss over the effects of 20 years of sanctions, 30 years of self-isolation, 50 years of authoritarian rule, 70 years of internal war, and over 100 years of colonialism. 

The impact of generations of virtually no public spending on health and education is everywhere to be seen. Xenophobic tendencies are entrenched across the political scene. State institutions are brittle and in many parts of the country practically non-existent. Progress on any front, even with maximum political will, will not be easy.

Some things have certainly improved in the past few years: political life is freer than at any time in half a century and at least a tentative transition has been made from military dictatorship to a quasi-elected government. No one wants to go back to isolation. 

But the mix of challenges now facing the country is so great, it is hard to see a positive narrative continuing. It is not just the peace process, the economy, and the Rohingya crisis. Migration, urbanisation, climate change, and new feelings and agendas unleashed by a revolution in telecoms are reshaping the social landscape. Relations with China are at an inflection point, with the possibility of huge new infrastructure projects remaking Myanmar’s geography. 

At the same time, almost no one is considering the long view. Just take northern Rakhine, site of today’s violence and tomorrow’s possible refugee return: what will it be in 10 or 15 years? A stop on a new super-highway between China and India? Or will climate change sink it into the sea? Even an experienced government aided by super technocrats would struggle to manage what Myanmar is having to manage, let alone plan for the future.

The outside world is absolutely right to prioritise the crisis at hand. It is equally important, though, to jettison once and for all the Myanmar fairytale, and to appreciate that working in Myanmar means working with a near-failed state; to redouble efforts to boost the country’s own abilities, in particular through investments in health and education; and, perhaps most of all, to help inject fresh thinking about an exciting future for all. 

Otherwise, the current crisis will be just the first of many to come.